I’m a pretty big believer in accountability.  With that in mind, I’ll be the first to admit that my predictions for how the Irish would fare this season were not accurate.  Going all the way back into last spring, I thought ND would be a borderline top-10 team in 2011 and they really didn’t come close to approaching that level of performance at any point during the season.   In sum, I was drinking way too much Kool-Aid.

Having said that, I also wanted to go back and take a look at the prediction model I put forth before the season started for point differential for ND and other teams.  For ND, the model was actually very good, as I predicted ND would finish with a point differential of +118 and they finished at +111.  So even though I was pretty close in terms of understanding where ND came in on point differential, I was not close in predicting their final record.  This is mainly attributable to the fact that since ND turned the ball over so much, they lost more games than a team with comparable factors (such as talent, returning coach, new QB, previous year’s PD) would have.

A brief summary of the accuracy of the model is below:

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Some brief thoughts on interpreting the results above: Continue reading →

Before actually covering the recap, let me present you with a few hypotheticals.  Would you say ND’s chances of winning were better than 50/50 if any one of the following conditions held true:

• ND shut out FSU for the first half, including 5 sacks of EJ Manuel and a defensive TD, all while holding FSU to 111 yards in total offense and only 5 first downs
• ND was up 14 – 3 going into the 4^th quarter
• ND got the ball down 4 points at the FSU 28 yard line with 3:56 to play

I think most fans would play the odds with any one of those situations.  But in some sort of strange taunt that seems all-too-fitting in a year filled with goal line fumbles returned for TD’s and blocked QB pooch punts, ND lost a game where all three of these conditions held.  A frustrating end to 2011 indeed.

Before moving on to my thoughts on the game, let’s start with the basics: the MOE and drive charts: Continue reading →

KEVIN: Notre Dame 17, Florida State 14

Notre Dame and FSU both struggle to move the ball for most of the game. The Irish strike first when Andrew Hendrix takes it in on a quarterback keeper early in the second quarter. In the first half, the Irish offense moves better with Hendrix under center, and Brian Kelly starts limiting Tommy Rees’ playing time. But Hendrix’s inexperience shows in the second half when he throws two interceptions, allowing Florida State to take a fourth quarter lead. On Notre Dame’s final possession, Rees takes over and leads the Irish down the field. He hits Mike Floyd in the end zone with a minute left, giving Notre Dame its second straight bowl win. Rees’ late game heroics leave Kelly with a muddled quarterback situation and a hectic spring.

RYAN: Florida State 19, Notre Dame 16

As I stated in my statistical comparison of the Irish and the Noles, these two teams are very evenly matched. I expect ND’s defense to have a very solid day, with the front 7 (and especially Aaron Lynch) getting a lot of pressure on E.J. Manuel. That said, I think FSU will be able to pick up chunks of yardage underneath that the Irish defense has been ceding all season. On offense, I expect a musical chairs-like situation at QB for the Irish, with both Rees and Hendrix struggling against a very good FSU defense (FSU ranks 6th in yards allowed per game and 4th in points allowed per game). At the end of the day, the difference in the game will be penalties and turnovers and the Irish will be on the wrong end of both and lose a close game against a hated rival. Let’s hope my gut is wrong on this one. Go Irish! Beat Seminoles!

JOHNNY B: Notre Dame 31, Florida State 20

In his last game as a starting QB, Tommy Rees throws for two scores (and only one pick) in an Irish victory. Cierre Wood and Andrew Hendrix score the other two TDs on the ground. The Irish defense allows the team to take an early lead with great play in the first half, including a Jamoris Slaughter interception and a sack each from Aaron Lynch and Stephon Tuitt, aka Brer Fox and Brer Bear. Time to be turnin’ around, Semonoles, if only you could.

JOHN: Notre Dame 24, Florida State 17

Notre Dame wins a sloppy, turnover-filled game on the strength of its defense and a gritty second-half performance by Andrew Hendrix. After trailing for much of the game, two second-half takeaways set the Irish up for an exciting comeback victory. It isn’t pretty, but in the end the Irish win and set themselves up to finish the season in the top-25 for the first time in five years.

Note, this post is a bit on the long-end, but I think it contains a lot of good data that is deserving of some analysis and discussion

One the recent developments about college football that has bothered me most is what seems to be a significant increase in the number of games that big time programs play against FCS (formerly known as Division I-AA) teams.  I’ve seen a range of nicknames for these lopsided contests, from “body bag games” to “paydays,” as FCS teams often have little chance of winning (over the last 10 years, FCS teams win 1 in 10 games against FBS opponents, but only 1 in 20 if you look only at FCS teams against AQ /BCS conference schools).

To satisfy my own curiosity, I wanted to put bring some facts/data to this topic to answer a few questions:

• Is the number of games FBS vs. FCS games actually increasing?  If so, how much?
• What is the average margin of victory in these games?  Have these games been getting more or less competitive over the last 10 years?
• Which teams have been the “worst offenders” when it comes to scheduling these payday games to pad their own stats and records?
• Speaking more broadly, which conferences seem to consistently schedule weaker teams and conferences as a higher proportion of their overall schedule?

In addition to answering the questions above (the conclusions, in my mind, are interesting, but not surprising), I will also look to provide a rationale for why these games are increasing and provide my own thoughts on how to enhance the structure to better please fans and overall competitiveness.  So with that, let’s jump into the data:

Fact 1: The number of FBS vs. FCS games has increased 57% from 2001 to 2010, growing at an average of ~5% per year

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The graph above shows the total number of games (the # on top of each bar), with the composition of each bar showing how many “upsets” occurred in these contests each year.  Continue reading →

I still remember the last time ND faced Florida State in 2003.  It was my freshman year at ND and I had gone into the season thinking that ND was back, fresh off its “Return to Glory” under recent Coach of the Year winner Tyrone Willingham.  As you probably remember, the 5-7 season was an utter disappointment, of which the Florida State game was the low point.  The Irish got hammered at home and lost to the 5th ranked Seminoles 37 – 0.  After that game, I observed a self-imposed, one-week ban on reading about Irish football on the Internet…Things were that bad.

Thus, I’m actually excited for the upcoming match-up against the Seminoles.  Sure the teams are different, the coaches are different and the stage is a far cry from the “1 vs. 2 Game of the Century” in 1993, but perhaps this game could be the karmic reversal of that dreadful day in November of my freshman year and propel the Irish to future greatness (one can hope, right?).

Ok, enough build-up, let’s get to an overview of how the Irish and Seminoles stack up.  First, the overview of the Seminoles schedule and how they fared in 2011:

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Continue reading →

The Irish only lost last night by 2 TDs, but in all honesty, the game was never really that close.  ND’s offense was woefully inept in the first half and despite the spark that Andrew Hendrix provided in the second half, the Irish were unable to dig out of the 21-0 hole they were in at the break.  There was both good and bad in last night’s game (more bad than good), so let’s start with the predictably horrid MOE:

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Continue reading →

Notre Dame enters the BCS top-25 for the first time under Brian Kelly this week, climbing four spots to #22.  And, after a wild weekend of upset, the Irish still cling to hope that (with a win over Stanford) they could climb the remaining 8 spots to reach #14 and BCS eligibility at year’s end.

Below are the updated BCS standings, once again color coded: green indicates a team likely to fall below the Irish, yellow is a decent chance the team falls, orange is a remote chance the team falls, and white is all but impossible.

After the chart, I’ll explain what exactly needs to happen for the Irish to sneak into the BCS discussion.

What Irish fans should be watching for:
(1) 3 or 4 of the 5 Big 10 Teams ranked ahead of the Irish drop
(2) At least one of the 4 Big 12 teams ranked ahead of the Irish drop
(3) Notre Dame leapfrogs TCU
(4) Clemson (or one of its remaining opponents) drops
(5) Georgia Tech loses out
(6) An unexpected Oregon drop

(1) Notre Dame passes 3 or 4 Big 10 teams:
Notre Dame will almost certainly pass at least three Big 10 teams:  #21 Nebraska (even if they beat Iowa) simply by beating Stanford; the loser of the Penn State/Wisconsin game; and the loser of the Big 10 Championship (PSU/Wisconsin vs. MSU).  Michigan can make that 4 teams with a loss at home against Ohio State this weekend.

If indeed Notre Dame passes four from the Big 10, they will be in very good position to climb the remaining four spots to #14

(2) Notre Dame passes at least one Big 12 team: This will be more difficult than passing three or four from the Big 10.

– #18 Baylor: The Irish have an outside shot of leaping Baylor even if they win out, but, realistically, the Bears may need to fall to #25 Texas to slip behind the Irish.  With the Longhorn secondary, that could certainly happen.

– #11 Kansas State:  They should handle Iowa State, but as OSU saw last week, don’t count the Cyclones out.  This is a longshot, but the upset could happen.

– #9 Oklahoma:  Oklahoma has already fallen hard in the human polls after their loss to Baylor.  A third Sooner loss would give the Irish an outside shot of leaping Oklahoma off the momentum of a victory in Palo Alto.

Altogether, if the Irish can pass 5 teams combined from the Bigs 10 and 12, they will have a legitimate shot of rising the final three spots to #14.  If they pick up 6 or more spots from these conferences, BCS eligibility is more likely than not.

(3) Notre Dame leapfrogs #19 TCU: This is very likely to happen regardless of how TCU finishes if the Irish can pull off the upset at Stanford.

(4) Clemson (or one of its remaining opponents) drops: With a loss against South Carolina, the #17 Tigers likely fall behind the Irish heading into the ACC Championship.  Clemson likely regain lost ground with a victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC finale, but it’s not guaranteed.  If Clemson drops both, they’re well behind the Irish.

Even if Clemson doesn’t fall, the Tigers could be instrumental in pushing either #12 South Carolina or #5 Virginia Tech behind the Irish.  If Clemson beats #12 South Carolina handily this weekend, the Irish could potentially leapfrog the then 9-3 Gamecocks.  Moreover, there is an outside chance that Virginia Tech loses both to Virginia and to Clemson in the ACC Championship, to slip just behind the Irish in the final polls.

(5) Georgia loses out: Similar to Clemson, Georgia will fall behind the Irish with a loss this weekend against Georgia Tech, but could climb back head with an upset victory in the SEC Championship.  If the Bulldogs lose out, the Irish will pass them comfortably.

(6) Oregon drops: This doesn’t need to happen for the Irish to reach #14, but it would be a big help.  The Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State is nearly always competitive; the Beavers could pull off the upset against an Oregon team still reeling from its loss to USC.

KEVIN: Stanford 38, Notre Dame 28

The Irish come to Palo Alto ready to play, with Tommy Rees hitting Tyler Eifert for a touchdown on the opening drive of the game. But the Irish defense struggles to stop Stanford’s running game, allowing Andrew Luck to kill Notre Dame with play action passes. The game is tied at the half, but Stanford pulls away late thanks to strong play from Luck and a late Notre Dame turnover.

RYAN: Stanford 38, Notre Dame 20

The worn down Irish just don’t have an answer for the intermediate passing game of the Cardinal and give up huge chunks of yardage and long sustained drives. On offense Notre Dame tries a few new things (Zone read with Hendrix, Riddick at TB, a flea flicker…), but nothing sticks and the Irish fail to ever get into any sort of rhythm. The Irish go -2 in turnovers for the game to secure their position in very last in FBS.

JOHNNY B: Notre Dame 28, Stanford 27

In their biggest game of the season, the Irish come up big. The offense cleans up its act after a seriously disappointing performance against BC. Jamoris Slaughter intercepts Andrew Luck in the first quarter and allows the Irish to take an early lead. Tommy leads the winning drive, capped off by a Michael Floyd fourth down TD, in the final few minutes, and the defense does its job to end the game. A huge win in a classic game gives Kelly some positive momentum once again heading into the bowl game.

JOHN: Stanford 34, Notre Dame 24

With their running game and defensive front at full strength, the Irish could well pull off this upset. But with no Jonas Gray, Braxston Cave, or Kapron Lewis Moore, and with Ethan Johnson, Stephon Tuitt, and Aaron Lynch all less than 100%, Notre Dame’s two biggest strengths become, at best, question marks. As we saw against USC, if the Irish cannot dominate along the lines, they will struggle on both sides of the ball. Stanford will establish their run game early, and will do their damage with the play action. The Irish have trouble moving the ball without a consistent running game. Unfortunately the Irish program misses another opportunity to make a statement.

A Happy Thanksgiving to all readers and their families.  With the holiday comes the annual Irish trip to California, this time to take on 10-1 Stanford, currently ranked 6^th in the AP poll.  If not for a 53 – 30 loss to Oregon two weeks ago, the Cardinal would be playing for a berth in the BCS title game to face off against whomever survives the SEC West.  Instead, the Cardinal are playing to salvage their hopes for an at-large BCS berth and to potentially give a boost to Andrew Luck’s Heisman chances.

Now on to the usual charts and stats:

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A few observations based on the above and what I know about Stanford:

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View from section 5 prior to kick-off

Calling Saturday’s game against BC an “ugly win” is really a disservice to the term “ugly win.”  After an effective first drive, Notre Dame failed to move the ball on offense and was consistently stymied by a very average BC defense.  Notre Dame’s defense played well overall, but gave up a long TD drive late in the 4^th quarter that kept the game in doubt until the final whistle blew.  This was certainly not the way the Irish wanted to “tune-up” going into the biggest game of the season next week, but at the end of the day, they did just enough to win.

Before getting into the MOE and drive charts, it is worth spending a minute on Jonas Gray.  After the way his season started with a fumble at the goal line against USF that got returned for a TD, I think it’s fair to say most fans had relatively low expectations for what Gray would do for the rest of the year.  Gray bounced back though and had an absolutely incredible season and was arguably the most important player on the offense this year.  Assuming his season is over, he will finish the year with 791 yards, 12 TDs and an amazing 6.9 YPC.  Bouncing back from this injury will not be easy, but let’s hope Gray can bounce back (just like he did after USF) and play on Sundays.

Now on to the MOE:

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• The Irish were far from mistake free on offense, but had a MOE below the 12% threshold for victory.  Part of the relatively low MOE was driven by the fact the Irish actually ran many more plays than BC yesterday (~25% more plays and a roughly 6 minute advantage in TOP) Continue reading →